EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS: A Modern Analysis of Exchange Rate Theory and Evidence

by Eric J. Pentecost

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Summary

This important book provides an up-to-date assessment and survey of the most important recent theoretical and empirical work on exchange rates. Eric Pentecost examines the vast literature which has been produced since the mid-1970s by carefully developing the main theoretical models of exchange rate determination and assessing their empirical validity, drawing largely from recent econometric results based on the cointegration methodology. In addition to the monetary and portfolio balance models of the exchange rate and their predecessors, models of ‘the news’, speculative bubbles and risk premia are also considered. Very recent developments are reviewed in the final chapter and include the use of survey data on exchange rate expectations to test the rational expectations hypothesis, chartism, the use of chaos theory as a means of modelling exchange rate dynamics, and models of ‘smooth-pasting’.

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