Policy Reform, Economic Growth, and China's Agriculture

Summary
Growth in Chinese agricultural output has been phenomenal in recent years, as policy and price reforms took effect. Using a general equilibrium model developed by one of the authors, this study shows that agricultural self sufficiency will continue to rise in the short term as a result of further reforms and changes in the international trading system, but will ultimately be reduced as China experiences a rural industrial boom and a decline in the share of agricultural products in exports. The consequent reliance on markets will tend to encourage further reforms, which should include liberalisation of both external trade and the exchange rate regime.
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